On the opening day of China’s annual National People’s Congress, Beijing revealed plans to boost military spending by nearly $250 billion in 2025, marking a 7% increase. This move is part of China’s ongoing efforts to modernize its armed forces while asserting territorial claims in the South China Sea and reaffirming its stance on Taiwan.
China considers Taiwan a breakaway province, and President Xi Jinping has long emphasized the goal of reunification, by force if necessary. Taiwan, however, has relied heavily on the United States for military and diplomatic support. Under the Taiwan Relations Act, the U.S. is obligated to provide Taiwan with defensive capabilities against any threats.
The U.S. military frequently conducts freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea, reinforcing its commitment to regional stability. These maneuvers have led to several tense confrontations with Chinese forces in recent years.
Trump’s Approach to Ukraine Raises Concerns in Taiwan
Recent geopolitical shifts have left Taiwan’s leaders and citizens uneasy. Former President Donald Trump’s abrupt shift in stance on Ukraine, including a tense exchange with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has sparked fears that Taiwan could face similar unpredictability.
“These developments are deeply unsettling for the people of Taiwan,” said Russell Hsiao, Executive Director of the Global Taiwan Institute in Washington, D.C. “The sudden change in U.S. support for Ukraine raises questions about whether Taiwan might experience the same treatment if conflict arises with China.”
Taiwan has long been a key strategic partner of the U.S., receiving more than $50 billion in military aid since 1950. The country has invested heavily in advanced defense systems, including HIMARS rocket launchers, F-16 fighter jets, and Abrams battle tanks, to counter any potential threats from Beijing.
Increased Pressure on Taiwan to Boost Defense Spending
Taiwan has earmarked nearly $20 billion, or approximately 2.5% of its 2025 budget, for defense spending. However, the Trump administration has pushed for greater financial commitments, similar to its demands on European allies regarding NATO funding.
During a recent Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, Elbridge Colby, Trump’s nominee for Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, argued that Taiwan should quadruple its defense budget. “They should be spending more like 10% of their GDP on defense,” Colby stated, emphasizing the urgency of bolstering Taiwan’s security.
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te responded by proposing an increase in defense spending beyond 3%, pending approval from the Legislative Yuan. While Taiwan has not yet engaged in direct talks with Trump since his reelection, Lai extended congratulations through former National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien.
Trump and Taiwan: A Complicated Relationship
The dynamics between Trump and Taiwan have evolved significantly over the years. In 2016, Trump made headlines by accepting a congratulatory phone call from then-President Tsai Ing-wen, breaking decades of U.S. diplomatic precedent. Beijing condemned the call, but Trump’s administration continued strengthening security ties with Taiwan through arms sales and strategic agreements.
Under Trump’s latest administration, economic ties between the U.S. and Taiwan have remained strong. The island nation remains one of America’s top trade partners, with bilateral trade valued at nearly $160 billion in 2024. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has also committed to investing $100 billion in the U.S. to build five new semiconductor facilities in Arizona, a move widely seen as a strategic countermeasure to China’s influence over the tech industry.
Trump praised the agreement, highlighting its potential to create thousands of high-paying jobs in the U.S. The deal has granted TSMC immunity from the 25% tariffs Trump has imposed on foreign semiconductor manufacturers.
Balancing Taiwan’s Security and U.S. Commitments
While Taiwan remains a crucial ally for the U.S., Trump’s unpredictable approach to foreign policy has led to concerns about the strength of future commitments. Experts caution that Taipei must carefully navigate its relationship with Washington.
“Taipei’s leaders must remain level-headed when dealing with the Trump administration,” Hsiao advised. “It is essential to ensure that the U.S.-Taiwan partnership remains strong and resilient, especially in light of growing military threats from China.”
With China’s military expansion and Taiwan’s strategic importance in global trade and security, maintaining stability in the Taiwan Strait remains a top priority for both Washington and Taipei. However, as recent events have shown, Taiwan must be prepared for shifts in U.S. policy while continuing to strengthen its own defense capabilities.
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